Thoughts and Observations on Turkish Economy and financial markets. Turkiye Ekonomisi, Borsa, Dolar, Altin, Faiz, Teknik Analiz, Grafik, Hisse Senetleri...

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Turkey's Fourth Quarter Growth Rate

Back in August I was expecting Turkey's growth rate to slow, but not to this extend. Now I think in fourth quarter Turkish economy will shrink by 4%. The best thing about the global recession is that oil prices went down to $40. Remember in August I predicted that in contrary to most analyst oil prices will decline to $105 at the end of 2008. Well, I was too optimistic again!

As a result Turkey's inflation problem is gone for now. I also predicted this correctly. Now Central Bank is aggresively reducing interest rates and the government is "targeting" a growth rate of 4% in 2009. Targeting? I should say dreeeeeaming. Lower interest rates will not be enough to get Turkey out of recession. In 2009 Turkish economy will shrink.