Back in August I was expecting Turkey's growth rate to slow, but not to this extend. Now I think in fourth quarter Turkish economy will shrink by 4%. The best thing about the global recession is that oil prices went down to $40. Remember in August I predicted that in contrary to most analyst oil prices will decline to $105 at the end of 2008. Well, I was too optimistic again!
As a result Turkey's inflation problem is gone for now. I also predicted this correctly. Now Central Bank is aggresively reducing interest rates and the government is "targeting" a growth rate of 4% in 2009. Targeting? I should say dreeeeeaming. Lower interest rates will not be enough to get Turkey out of recession. In 2009 Turkish economy will shrink.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
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